Table 1:

Prevalence and probability estimates for people in Canada

Variable	Point estimate (95% CI)			Distribution^† (parameters)
Variable	Overall^*	Male	Female	Distribution^† (parameters)
Epidemiology
Prevalence of AAA (16)^, (19)^, (20)		0.015 (0.013–0.017)	0.004 (0.003–0.005)	β
Probability of AAA (16)^, (19)^, (20)
Small AAA		0.788	0.788	Dirichlet (4.73; 0.72; 0.55)
Medium AAA		0.120	0.119	Dirichlet (4.73; 0.72; 0.55)
Large AAA		0.092	0.093	Dirichlet (4.73; 0.72; 0.55)
Probabilities
Accept invitation for screening (13)	0.733			β
3-month rupture of small AAA (21)^, (22)		0.000095 (0.000076–0.0001)	0.00032	β
3-month rupture of medium AAA (21)^, (22)		0.002 (0.002–0.003)	0.0036	β
3-month rupture of large AAA (21)		0.016 (0.011–0.020)	0.05944	β
Incidental AAA diagnosis (23)	0.01 (0.010–0.011)			β
Death from rupture before emergency repair (24)	0.500 (0.200–0.800)			β
Scheduled repair: Open/EVAR (25)	0.418/0.582			β
Emergency repair: Open/EVAR (25)	0.753/0.247			β
Death after scheduled open repair (25)	0.0390 (0.0340–0.0460)			β
Death after scheduled EVAR (25)	0.0110 (0.0090–0.0150)			β
Death after emergency open repair (26)	0.3798 (0.3410–0.4163)			β
Death after emergency EVAR (26)	0.2076 (0.1580–0.2542)			β
3-month all-cause mortality (2020), (27) yr
65–69		0.0035	0.0022	β
70–74		0.0053	0.0035	β
75–79		0.0088	0.006	β
80–84		0.0153	0.0107	β
85–89		0.0277	0.0202	β
≥ 90		0.0547	0.0469	β

Note: AAA = abdominal aortic aneurysm, CI = confidence interval, EVAR = endovascular aortic repair.
↵* Overall estimates used only when separate estimates for males and females were not available.
↵† For β distributions, point estimates represented the α, whereas the β equals 1 minus the α.